Roanoke College Finds Kaine, Obama with Big Va. Leads

For what it's worth--and I'm not sure polls now or even an hour before the election are worth much--here's what the most recent Roanoke College poll of the presidential and Senate races in Virginia have come up with. It's surprising in its gap between the Democrats and Republicans, but my guess is that gap is huge in the urban areas and that Romney still leads in the rural--and much less populated--areas of the state.

Here's what Dr. Harry Wilson's students found in their survey:

President Barack Obama has opened an eight-point lead (47% - 39%) over Mitt Romney in Virginia, according to The Roanoke College Poll, as the two candidates are about to face one another in the first Presidential debate. Democrat Tim Kaine enjoys a 10-point margin (47% - 37%) over Republican George Allen in the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Virginia. The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 589 likely voters in Virginia between September 19 and September 28 and has a margin of error of +4 percent. Employing a more stringent screen for likely voters (N=427) reduces the number of undecided voters, but leaves the margins virtually unchanged (Obama 49%, Romney 41%; Kaine 48%, Allen 39%).

Ten percent of the electorate remains undecided in the Presidential contest, while the other candidates on the ballot draw smaller numbers of voters (Johnson, 2%; Stein 2%; and Goode 1%). Adding in those undecided voters who are “leaning” toward a candidate, Obama leads Romney 48 percent to 40 percent with seven percent undecided. Those who support third-party candidates would split their vote between Romney (29%) and Obama (24%), but most are uncertain of their vote choice if their candidate was not on the Virginia ballot.