tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3077386656187888581.post8709299264291938257..comments2024-03-19T22:06:41.165-04:00Comments on fromtheeditr: Trusting the Media? Give Us Something to TrustAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04217963475185024609noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3077386656187888581.post-3509218856157091162012-09-21T19:00:49.179-04:002012-09-21T19:00:49.179-04:00Dan, forget the media polls! They're sloppy an...Dan, forget the media polls! They're sloppy and biased. <br /><br />Check out what the political futures market has to say. Just a few days ago, Obama's chances of re-election were pegged at a 67% by the traders on Intrade.com. Today, those chances have risen to 71%, while Romney's dropped from 32% to 28%. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/" rel="nofollow">http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/</a><br /><br />Also, have a look at what the Iowa Electronic Markets say. See the "winner take all" chart. The bid column represents the chances. Obama is at 73% and Romney is as 26%. <br /><br /><a href="http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html" rel="nofollow">http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html</a><br /><br />Look at this IEM graph, which currently shows a huge difference in price for Obama futures (high) versus Romney futures (low). <br /><br /><a href="http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_WTA.cfm" rel="nofollow">http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_WTA.cfm</a><br /><br />The IEM hasn't been wrong in predicting the presidential election outcome since 1988, according to this Time article: <br /><br /><a href="http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1856094_1856096_1856113,00.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1856094_1856096_1856113,00.html</a><br /><br />So forget the polls. Look at where people are putting their money.Jill Elswickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01517911058252345476noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3077386656187888581.post-503554656842218312012-09-21T18:54:53.051-04:002012-09-21T18:54:53.051-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jill Elswickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01517911058252345476noreply@blogger.com