Friday, November 11, 2016

Trump's Economy: Smoke, Mirrors and Tax Cuts (for the Wealthy)

Donald Trump made a lot of promises to his base, many of them economic in nature. Let's assume--safely--that a bulk of his supporters are blue collar workers who depend on American-made goods to keep them employed.

According to a NYTimes piece (here) this morning, these are WalMart shoppers and WalMart is the third largest importer of Chinese-made goods in the world (behind two countries, one the U.S., which includes WalMart's totals in its). At the very center of the Trump economy and the point that has billionaires giddy, is his proposed $5.8 trillion tax cut, even as he increases spending in a number of areas, including a big boost in defense. By 2025, more than half of tax reductions would go to the wealthiest 1 percent of the population.

He wants to put 35 and 45 percent tariffs on Mexican and Chinese goods (risking not only a trade war and perhaps inspiring China to call in the U.S. debt to it). Trade is already slowing--costing American jobs--and would almost certainly slow dramatically with the taxes. More jobs in the toilet, as many as five million.

In Trump's crosshairs are education (he wants to eliminate the federal department) and R&D support, which is where new products, and thus new jobs, come from.

He wants to ditch regulation (as Republicans tend to want to do), and is likely to crush the EPA (along with several other environmental initiative, which will make the world's headlong hurtle toward self-destruction much more probable). This is a small sample of the changes Trump expects to make, with relative ease. Acts like destroying the ACA will require 60 votes in the Senate, which he does not have, so it is likely to be safe for now. Unless the Senate changes that rule, which it can.

Hold on to your hat (and your breathing apparatus). Big, big changes is coming and there's a lot that will shock even--maybe especially--the Trump voters.



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